GHG emissions
2015 INVENTORY BY SECTOR
A GHG inventory was prepared for the Ventura County General Plan Update using a baseline year of 2015. The GHG inventory was organized by emissions sector (e.g., transportation, building energy, etc.) and focused on the emissions that were generated by residents and businesses operating within the unincorporated county. The inventory includes sources within each sector that are under some degree of jurisdictional control by the County, in accordance with established GHG accounting protocols and state guidance. The total communitywide emissions for the unincorporated area in 2015 were approximately 1,939,238 metric tons (MT) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) GHG emissions.
Biggest Drivers
The 2015 communitywide inventory was used to help forecast GHG emissions for future years, including 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050, based on projected trends in population, housing, employment, and transportation activity over time, consistent with County and regional projections. In doing so, the County was able to identify the emissions sectors that are anticipated to grow the fastest and establish strategies to reduce the emissions before they’ve occurred. As shown in the figure below, the transportation and building energy sectors represent the two largest emissions sectors within the unincorporated county, and these sectors are anticipated to grow in proportion over the coming decades.
The figure above depicts emissions under a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, meaning that the forecasted values assume no additional efforts or legislative actions (either at the state or local level) will be made to reduce GHG emissions in the future. The “BAU activities plus state and federal actions” scenario shown in the figure below, under “Reduction Targets and Goals,” represents GHG reductions that are anticipated to be realized in the future, without any local government action. Such actions include, but are not limited to, improving vehicle fuel standards and increasing the amount electricity generated by renewable sources.
The top four emissions sectors compromise 86% of unincorporated Ventura County’s GHG emissions in 2015.
REDUCTION TARGETS AND GOALS
The County’s GHG reduction targets are aligned with the state’s GHG reduction targets for 2020 and 2030, the horizon year for the Ventura County General Plan, and a longer-term state policy goal for 2050. Below are some of the County’s GHG emissions reduction targets relative to the County’s 2015 communitywide GHG emissions levels:
- 2 percent below 2015 levels by 2020,
- 41 percent below 2015 levels by 2030,
- 61 percent below 2015 levels by 2040, and
- 80 percent below 2015 levels by 2050.
The graph below shows how GHG emissions are anticipated to change in the unincorporated community between 2015 (the County’s first GHG inventory year) and 2050. The first two scenarios reflect the BAU and “BAU activities plus state and federal actions” forecasts described previously. The “Implementing 2040 General Plan Programs” inventory reflects additional GHG reductions that would occur in addition to the “BAU activities plus state and federal actions” based on the implementation of programs and policies in the 2040 General Plan. These three scenarios are charted in reference to the County’s GHG reduction goals identified previously.
There is still a gap between emission reduction targets and emission reductions from CAP programs. The County of Ventura and the Ventura County Climate Emergency Council are actively looking at additional programs and projects to meet the GHG reduction targets and goals.